Odd Lot — Paper Trade Post-Mortem

DAR — MA20 Pullback

A record of what was known at entry, what the trade actually delivered, and what can—and cannot—be concluded from the result.

Win Quality B Entry A+ 10 Days Held Risk-Neutral at Entry
Entry Price
$62.69
Exit Price
$68.87
Return
+9.9%
R Multiple
+1.64R
Entry Date
Aug 10, 2026
Exit Date
Aug 20, 2026
Days Held
10
Exit Reason
Target reached
Trend State
Stage 2 with MA200 rising.
Leadership
RS Rank 82.
Quality
71/100 — Fundamentals 16/30 · Technicals 55/70.
Entry Read
A+ MA20 pullback with Low risk.
MA20 at Snapshot
$61.28; scanner price was $62.87.
Planned Stop
$58.92, frozen before the trade outcome was known.
Testable thesis at entry

DAR was being treated as a pullback within an existing Stage 2 uptrend. The setup depended on price stabilizing around the rising MA20 area and then resuming higher. The scanner also identified nearby resistance around $64.84. The preplanned stop was $58.92.

Known information gap

The frozen entry record states that earnings-date information was unavailable. This post-mortem does not assume that the risk was checked elsewhere unless that verification is separately recorded.

View original frozen thesis

Darling Ingredients is posting extraordinary EPS growth (2914% YoY) on solid revenue expansion, signaling operational momentum. The chart is clean: Stage 2 confirmed, all eight trend criteria passing, MA200 rising, and price holding 2.6% above the MA20 support level at $61.28. This is a pullback entry setup with tight risk. You're 3.85% from your stop below MA20, which is tradeable but leaves little room for noise. The stock is only 3% below its 52-week high, so a break above $64.84 opens meaningful upside. Volume is drying (0.03x average), which is constructive for a base. Critical: earnings date is not available in the data—check your broker before entering. A surprise earnings announcement within 10 days changes the risk profile entirely. Confirmation the trade is working: price holds above MA20 and closes near the highs. Invalidation: a close below $59.75 (the structural MA20 level) breaks the stage. Best entry window is 10:00–10:30 AM after opening volatility settles—confirm price is holding near MA20 before entering.

Target Reached
DAR exited at $68.87 after 10 days for a +9.9% return, equal to +1.64R on the recorded trade.

The exit price finished $6.18 above the $62.69 entry and above the $64.84 level identified in the frozen thesis. That establishes that the stock ultimately moved through the nearby resistance identified at entry. This record does not contain enough path data to state precisely how price behaved around MA20 on each day of the hold, how much adverse excursion occurred, or what volume did during the advance.

Price should resume higher from the pullback setup.
Confirmed
The trade exited +9.9% above entry after reaching its recorded target.
A move through $64.84 would show renewed strength.
Confirmed
The $68.87 exit price establishes that price ultimately traded above the level identified at entry.
MA20 should act as support during the pullback.
Not Proven
The current post-mortem record does not provide the full daily price path needed to verify this claim without inference.
Earnings risk needed separate confirmation.
Unresolved
The frozen record says the earnings date was unavailable; no separate verification is included here.
The planned stop was defined before the outcome.
Recorded
The scanner snapshot records a $58.92 stop. The page does not infer whether that stop was ever approached without path data.
What was done well
The trade began with a defined setup, entry, invalidation area, and target. That makes the result auditable instead of allowing the rationale to be rewritten after the fact.
Documentation gap
Earnings risk was explicitly identified as unknown at entry, but this record does not document whether it was verified before the trade was taken.

DAR is a useful example of a defined-risk pullback trade producing the intended outcome. The important lesson is not simply that the stock won. At entry, the scanner identified a specific setup and a specific point where the trade would be wrong; the position then reached its target within 10 days. One winning trade does not establish that every rubric component was predictive, that any one factor caused the move, or that the methodology should be reweighted.

Evidence standard: individual post-mortems document whether a frozen trade thesis matched the observed outcome. Methodology changes belong in aggregate review across a meaningful sample of trades, not in the conclusion of a single winner or loser.
B
DAR
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC.
Consumer Goods Stage 2
Grade
B | Entry: A+ | Risk: Low
Price
$62.87
Action
MA20 pullback entry — price retesting rising MA20 ($61.28) on drying volume. Stop below $58.92. Confirm on your chart before entering.
Quality
71/100 · Fund 16/30 · Tech 55/70
RSI / RS
RSI 45.3 · Rising · RS Rank 82
MACD
Positive growing
Moving Avgs
MA20 $61.28 · MA50 $58.87 · MA150 $55.93 · MA200 $50.66
Growth
EPS Growth 2914% · Revenue Growth 16.4%
Momentum
20D Momentum 1.7% · MA20 Rising: Yes
Leadership
MA200 Rising: Yes · Tier 2 · Leadership: Strong
Stage 2 Gate
PASS
Risk Score
5/24
Frozen snapshot — Aug 10, 2026 · Never edited
This page documents a simulated paper trade for research and education. It records the information available at entry and the recorded trade outcome. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.